The Academy Awards are on March 4th (Sunday night) and below are my predictions. In 2017, I managed 17/24. Let’s see if I can improve on that number. Doubtful as I can’t be bothered to slave over all the prediction analysis this time.
BEST PICTURE: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Winner: The Shape of Water
Interestingly, there isn’t an overwhelming favorite this year (The Shape of Water or even Get Out could cause an upset) though the safe bet is Three Billboards which has done well in precursor award shows. Three Billboards has a safe message about activism which the Academy will approve of although it is also divisive for other reasons. The name is quite a mouthful and that alone might hurt its earning potential. Memorably 1994’s Shawshank Redemption (now a beloved classic) disappointed at the box office which was blamed on its difficult-Shipshank-to-remember title. I still haven’t seen Three Billboards and based on the trailer featuring profanity and anger it simply is not the kind of film I would pay to watch at the cinema.
I finally was able to see Shape of Water this week and while it’s sweet and well-directed, I don’t consider it a masterpiece. Has a theme of tolerance towards outsiders which the Academy usual go for. Get Out stands a chance too with its important position on racism and look what happened last year as a film with a black cast won the top prize!
Dunkirk, Call Me by Your Name and Phantom Thread are my favorites of the best picture nominees, though I haven’t seen Ladybird, Darkest Hour or The Post.
BEST DIRECTOR: Guillermo del Toro, Shape of Water
Paul Thomas Anderson is overdue, a long shot at 80/1 though, and Phantom Thread is probably too complex for the Academy. I prefer Guillermo del Toro’s previous films but don’t forget oscar voters LOVE honoring Mexican directors. This year feels like del Toro’s time and Shape of Water is arguably his most oscar-friendly effort despite the weird romance at its center.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Gary Oldman is a chameleon and deserves an oscar. I’m fine with him winning for playing Winston Churchill. I was dissuaded from watching Darkest Hour as it looks very oscar baity. The Academy love historical dramas but I only watch films that interest me, and not just because of great performances. Of the three I’ve seen in this bracket, Timothée Chalamet is the most memorable in a star making role. Daniel Day-Lewis is brilliant too though I think it’s time for others to be rewarded.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE: Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
McDormand is usually great in everything. Would prefer to see Margot Robbie win for I, Tonya, she convinces as both younger and older Tonya Harding.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Get Out
A tough one to call as Three Billboards and Get Out are neck-and-neck in the betting. I’m favoring Get Out, the Academy will want to show appreciation towards blacks because of #oscarssowhite controversy and is the best chance Get Out has of winning an award on Sunday. While it has been compared to Stepford Wives (1975), Get Out exudes an originality and freshness in the horror genre. But it is horror, as noted, and voters are notoriously iffy in that regard.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Call Me by Your Name
FILM EDITING: Dunkirk
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: A Fantastic Woman
I’d love to see The Square win which has several of the best individual sequences of any film this year. A Fantastic Woman is about a transgender and the Academy tend to support films about minorities.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM: Coco
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Blade Runner 2049
The Blade Runner sequel wasn’t as interesting or emotional as I had hoped yet the visuals are undeniably stunning. Dunkirk could prevent Roger Deakins from finally winning, this is Deakins’ 14th nomination!
COSTUME DESIGN: Phantom Thread
PRODUCTION DESIGN/ART DIRECTION: The Shape of Water
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: Darkest Hour
VISUAL EFFECTS: War for the Planet of the Apes
Winner: Blade Runner 2049
Fully deserved if it wins. Similar to the Academy love for the third Lord of the Rings film, this is an award given for the SFX on the entire apes trilogy
DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE): Faces Places
Winner: Icarus
DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT): Edith+Eddie
Winner: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED): Dear Basketball
SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION): DeKalb Elementary
Winner: The Silent Child
ORIGINAL SCORE: Phantom Thread
Winner: the Shape of Water
I predict an upset. Phantom Thread beating betting favorite Shape of Water. Jonny Greenwood (of Radiohead fame) created a score that I was moved by and took notice of, which is 8/1 to win. Hans Zimmer’s music for Dunkirk was also stirring and he is third favorite at 16/1. The soundtrack for Shape of Water is pleasant but hardly oscar-worthy.
ORIGINAL SONG: “Remember Me” from “Coco”
SOUND EDITING: Dunkirk
SOUND MIXING: Baby Driver
Winner: Dunkirk
Dunkirk is the favorite. Baby Driver stands a chance of coming out on top. There are usually a few surprises during the show and maybe in this category!
After the ceremony, I will mark in green and red how I got on. 2018 result= 17/24
Any thoughts on my picks and commentary? Do you care about the oscars at this point? As always, comments are welcome
moviesandsongs365.wordpress.com 
I can’t say I care too much about The Oscars at this point. Haven’t for a few years now. Still, at least it’s exposure for flicks that may have passed folks by, or that folks may have ignored.
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@J: Good point about the exposure. Recently I discovered (and enjoyed) an animated film, The Red Turtle (2016) , thanks to it being nominated. However an oscar nom can also be a warning to stay away, depending what kind of films you like 🙂
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No they’re not really that important in the grand scheme of things but a reflection of “the times” and there will no doubt be a few who use the occasion to reach a vast audience with their acceptance speeches!
Will be interested to see how many you get right – I’ve not seen everything on the list but do think Three Billboards will win best pic. Hope they get the envelopes right this year!
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@Alyson: There are people who watch all the nominated films, I’m over that, life is too short to sit through stuff I only have a minor interest in. Yes, agree the films are a reflection of “the times”
Three Billboards does look to be the front runner. Shows the power of a movie when can inspire actual billboard activism, both in the US and Europe!
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We agree on all the main categories. Interesting to read that you picked Phantom Thread to win over The Shape of Water. I loved Greenwood’s score to the PTA feature. But Shape hit me at a more emotional core
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@Vern: I would also put Dunkirk’s score ahead of Desplat. The Shape of Water music captures the past and is romantic but didn’t strike me as something extraordinary. Perhaps I wasn’t paying enough attention? Glad to hear you had an emotional response and maybe it’s just me. I did read a review that said “Desplat writes a score that sounds a lot of times like an old school Ennio Morricone”-a great compliment
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We might have a few different choices, but I do like yours also. I am one of those who DO see all the movies, but i’ve done it since I was in high school as a friends dad would take us to see all of them telling us in order to make a clear decision on a favourite – we had to see them all. That has stuck in my head ever since. Sometimes I might not see all the Best Actor/Actress ones, but for the most part, I do try. 🙂
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@peggyatthemovies: If I was an oscar voter I’d watch all the noms. I can see the logic and enjoyment of wanting to see them all so you can make a fair choice on which is a favorite. For most of these picks I went with the GoldDerby betting favorite, except a couple which I think could be upsets.
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Oh and I really really liked ‘A Fantastic Woman’ so I am so glad you picked that as it’s my choice also.. I know many are going with ‘The Square’ but for me… it’s the former.. 🙂
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@peggyatthemovies: I picked A Fantastic Woman, haven’t actually seen it. Does sound like a potential winner to me based on the premise and oscar buzz. Turning out to be a notable year for LGBT cinema
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I agree with you on most major categories, and I have to admit my enthusiasm for Oscars waned even in the past year.
I think in the Director’s category, Christopher Nolan has some chance too. I think few can deny the superior directional skill that was required to produce Dunkirk, and it is about time the Academy starts recognising his distinct, intelligent way of telling stories.
It also still escapes me how Get Out got into the Best Picture nomination list, let alone cause any upset and win. Race politics played part, but I think the film is just too defective especially the second half to even get a nomination. I am more baffled that it can win the Best Original Screenplay. In my opinion, there is nothing original in Get Out at all. Just because someone can put The Skeleton Key, The Stepford Wives and Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner together should not mean they can win an Original Screenplay Oscar for it. Besides, the very beginning of Get Out was taken straight from The Invitation.
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@dbmoviesblog: I can relate to your waning enthusiasm for the Oscars. the way the Academy champion safe, mainstream, uncomplex movies kind of is the opposite to what inspires me. these days.
I agree Nolan deserves recognition for his filmmaking style but I think Del Toro does too. The director category will be a 1st time winner this year which is refreshing!
I haven’t seen The Skeleton Key, The Invitation or The Stepford Wives so the similarities weren’t bothersome to me. Get Out I enjoyed at the time and the screenplay does feel like a step forward as a horror film for the blacks (and others) about race relations, yet also a step back in some respects with dubious reverse racism. Killing of a Sacred Deer (not nominated) is to me the best original screenplay although of course that too was influenced by other material (Greek myths)
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I agree absolutely. I will mention in my other post that I think The Killing of a Sacred Deer should have been nominated for the Original Screenplay, much like the Lobster the year before. Well, and sure, one thing being influenced by some Greek mythology passed down through word of mouth or text since the time immemorial and another thing copying blatantly some scenes from a movie released just two years ago. Well, I guess I am just too sensitive when it comes to all this “originality” talk 🙂
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@dbmoviesblog: Interesting to speculate if anything is 100% original and if an inspiration way back is more valid than a recent influence. In either instance, directly lifting scenes is wrong obviously. I know in music there are singers such as Nick Cave who (partly out of fear of copyright) go back to ancient texts to find inspiration for lyrics. The dead can’t sue you 🙂 Tarantino is heavily influenced by films (and it’s kind of what he is famous for) but it seems to be okay and he’s open about it. There were complaints Reservoir Dogs (1992) and City on Fire (1987) apparently are extremely similar. But time seems to have lessened that controversy and now RDogs is a classic. If the artist is secretive about influences I guess they can look bad and be accused of theft.
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17/24 is a good fraction, nice predictions last year! Good luck on Sunday
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@stephen1001: 17 is not bad though I think I can do better. There are usually surprises so I’ll need all the luck I can get 😉
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See you’ve done an update – Well done on the second 17/24 in a row. Seems to be difficult to better that tally but you really know your movies.
I haven’t actually seen The Shape of Water yet but it’s on the cards for Saturday.
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@Alyson: I did alright with 17/24. Most of that is down to going with the bookmakers favorites. Sadly the two upset picks (score and sound mixing) were wrong
Shape of Water is out here too this month. a sweet story, and hope you enjoy. Will review later in my March recap
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Of course that should be “your movies” – arghh…
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@Alyson: Fixed! Not as bad as my typo (in a blog comment) “Mick Nolte” ha ha 🙂
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Looks like you got all of the acting predictions right, Chris! But it was pretty predictable wasn’t it? As for Best Film, I really thought Three Billboards since del Toro already won Best Director but I LOVE Shape of Water so I’m glad it won!
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@Ruth:The acting categories were very predictable this year. There was suspense for best picture though. Glad your favorite Shape of Water did so well!
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Some excellent predictions there, Chris… I think you’re a shoe-in for the Academy next year.
I lost interest in the Oscars some time ago when I realised I rarely even saw (or was interested in seeing) half of the winners anymore. This year was a little different though – with the exception of The Shape of Water (which I do want to see) I’ve seen nearly all of the main winners, and a pretty good set of films too.
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@Rol: Thanks. I doubt it, but you never know 🙂 Think you need to make films to become an Academy member.
I use my yearly top 10 lists as a measure for how many Best Picture films I loved in a given year. On this occasion, I have 3 (Dunkirk,Phantom Thread and CallMBYN). Last year, I loved two(Hell or High Water & Moonlight). A couple of years back only Mad Max Fury Road. The 2015 oscars is the last time I loved 3 Best Pic films(Whiplash, Boyhood, & Grand Budapest Hotel). But not a 100% reliable stat as (like you) I don’t have interest in watching every nominated film.
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